It took 39 days and 4,892 covid-19 deaths for Boris Johnson to take the action recommended on September 21 by scientific experts to save lives by locking down.
A month after that warning Prof John Edmunds, Professor of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Medicine, told a Commons committee:.“If you look at where we are, there is no way we can come out of this wave now without counting our deaths in the tens of thousands.”
Back on September 21 there were 4,437 new cases and only 11 new deaths when the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) warned Johnson he should lock down to cut the expected death rate.
SAGE said it had high confidence “The more rapidly interventions are put in place, and the more stringent they are… the greater the reduction in COVID-related deaths.”
On October 31, the day before the new lockdown was announced, there were 21,195 new daily daily cases and 326 new deaths.
The deadly delay in taking the recommended action shows he learned nothing from the “national scandal” and “serious disarray” of February and March when he took 41 days and three ineffective measures before locking down after Health Minister Matt Hancock warned of a “serious and imminent threat to public health” on February 10.
Just a one-week delay in that period could have cost 40,000 lives, according to former government chief scientific advisor Sir David King - “unwarranted, a complete cock-up by government," he told Red Pepper.
The recent tidal wave of Covid cases produced (on October 12) the ludicrous three-tier system in which people were free to carry the virus from one tier to another, there being no restriction on travel into and out of hot spots.
The official advice was: “People should try to avoid travelling outside the very-high alert level area they are in or entering a very-high alert level area.”
It wasn’t even an ineffective “avoid travelling” instruction, merely advice to “try” to avoid…
As a comparison, Victoria’s successful three-month lockdown involved Melburnians being banned from travelling more than five kilometres and not leaving the metro area.
How many more people have died needlessly because of Johnson’s latest blunderings?
An answer to this is the SAGE report of October 16 which told Johnson: “A new study, whose authors include members of the SAGE modelling subgroup, estimated that a circuit breaker could save thousands of lives…”
Two days earlier SAGE had estimated there were between 43,000 and 74,000 people being infected in England every day, “significantly above” the worst-case scenario of 12,000-13,000.
But it took another two weeks and 3,288 deaths after October 16 for Johnson to lock down the nation.
The appalling attitude of the government is illustrated by the fact that only two days before the lockdown announcement, senior minister Dominic Raab told BBC Radio 4 the government was “striving to avoid” a second nationwide lockdown.
Prof Edmunds evidence to the Commons committee included this warning: “We will see peaks around Christmas and the new year. There will be very severe numbers of cases throughout the UK.”
And the Spectator reported secret SAGE research had warned the Government on July 30 that in a worst case scenario without intervention there could be a total of up to 85,000 deaths by March 31 next year.
A month after that warning Prof John Edmunds, Professor of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Medicine, told a Commons committee:.“If you look at where we are, there is no way we can come out of this wave now without counting our deaths in the tens of thousands.”
Back on September 21 there were 4,437 new cases and only 11 new deaths when the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) warned Johnson he should lock down to cut the expected death rate.
SAGE said it had high confidence “The more rapidly interventions are put in place, and the more stringent they are… the greater the reduction in COVID-related deaths.”
On October 31, the day before the new lockdown was announced, there were 21,195 new daily daily cases and 326 new deaths.
The deadly delay in taking the recommended action shows he learned nothing from the “national scandal” and “serious disarray” of February and March when he took 41 days and three ineffective measures before locking down after Health Minister Matt Hancock warned of a “serious and imminent threat to public health” on February 10.
Just a one-week delay in that period could have cost 40,000 lives, according to former government chief scientific advisor Sir David King - “unwarranted, a complete cock-up by government," he told Red Pepper.
The recent tidal wave of Covid cases produced (on October 12) the ludicrous three-tier system in which people were free to carry the virus from one tier to another, there being no restriction on travel into and out of hot spots.
The official advice was: “People should try to avoid travelling outside the very-high alert level area they are in or entering a very-high alert level area.”
It wasn’t even an ineffective “avoid travelling” instruction, merely advice to “try” to avoid…
As a comparison, Victoria’s successful three-month lockdown involved Melburnians being banned from travelling more than five kilometres and not leaving the metro area.
How many more people have died needlessly because of Johnson’s latest blunderings?
An answer to this is the SAGE report of October 16 which told Johnson: “A new study, whose authors include members of the SAGE modelling subgroup, estimated that a circuit breaker could save thousands of lives…”
Two days earlier SAGE had estimated there were between 43,000 and 74,000 people being infected in England every day, “significantly above” the worst-case scenario of 12,000-13,000.
But it took another two weeks and 3,288 deaths after October 16 for Johnson to lock down the nation.
The appalling attitude of the government is illustrated by the fact that only two days before the lockdown announcement, senior minister Dominic Raab told BBC Radio 4 the government was “striving to avoid” a second nationwide lockdown.
Prof Edmunds evidence to the Commons committee included this warning: “We will see peaks around Christmas and the new year. There will be very severe numbers of cases throughout the UK.”
And the Spectator reported secret SAGE research had warned the Government on July 30 that in a worst case scenario without intervention there could be a total of up to 85,000 deaths by March 31 next year.
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