Mon, 09 Mar 2026 04:55:36 +1000WeeblySun, 02 Jun 2013 23:48:55 GMThttp://www.stevebishop.net/lies-damned-lies-statistics-and-abbottisms/lies-damned-lies-statistics-and-abbottismsAustralia is lagging way behind Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya in improving our gross domestic product (GDP), according to the American Central Intelligence Agency World Factbook.
 
Of course, we shouldn’t be concerned about statistics such as these but they are the sort of “damned lies” being used by Opposition Leader Tony Abbott to persuade us that the Labor
Government has turned us into a banana republic.

For example, Tony Abbott’s “Our Plan – Real Solutions for all Australians” includes this dire warning: “The Economist Intelligence Unit now ranks Australia as the 2nd worst
of 51 countries for productivity growth ahead of only
Botswana.”
 
It does not. Through a mishmash juggling of three sets of statistics, the Economist Intelligence Unit came up with something it calls “total factor productivity growth”. 
  
The unit admits that “total factor productivity growth” cannot be measured directly but is calculated by dividing GDP growth by employment growth and estimated growth in capital stock.
 
The fact that the result of this mathematical prestidigitation places Argentina and Italy at the top of the world league table should have given a responsible political leader cause for
concern before libelling our productivity.
 
The CIA World Factbook table of GDP growth shows Argentina 20 places below Australia and Italy a further 86. In GDP per person Italy is 26 places below Australia and Argentina a further 25. 
  
Even this is a further example of statistics not telling the whole story. 
 
The fact is that according to Trading Economics, productivity in Australia increased to an all-time high of 165.35 index points in the fourth quarter of 2012. It had risen from less than 155 in June 2006 under the Howard Government.
 
That’s right - Australian productivity is at a record high under the Labor Government.
 
And the World Economic Forum places us sixth in the world.

These must be reports that Tony Abbott hasn’t read yet.
 
In fact, there would appear to be a huge number of reports about the Australian economy which have escaped Tony Abbott’s attention in a case of selective omission.
 
Here are a few lines from Tony Abbott’s Plan which deals with the Liberals’ imagined economic crisis.
 
The plan says: “Australia has been living beyond its means, recklessly spending more than it earns. It is imperative that Australia restores responsible economic management.
 
“We must start addressing the unsustainable structural imbalances in our budget and get the budget back on track to strong and sustainable surpluses.
 
“We must start living within our means and start paying down government debt to protect ourselves against any economic shocks and to avoid leaving a debt legacy to our children.”
 
And despite the fact that Australia’s productivity has never been better, Tony Abbott produces this: “We will tackle Australia’s lagging productivity growth problem…”

In his Budget reply speech he talked of a “budget emergency” and “skyrocketing debt”
 
Here are some more examples of how Tony Abbott could devalue the standing of our economy.
 
According to the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) World Factbook, Australia only beats 88 countries in the world with our GDP growth rate of 3.3% as at 2012. 
  
Among these 88 nations are easybeats such as the USA with 2.2%, Canada 1.9%, Hong Kong 1.8%, Germany 0.7%, Japan 0.2%, the United Kingdom minus 0.1 and the entire EU at minus 0.3.
 
Perhaps these figures don’t tell the whole story. Examine the CIA figures for GDP per capita in US$. We’re way behind Qatar, the richest country in the world, whose minute population has to depend almost exclusively on a very narrow base of oil and gas  wells.

We’re way down in 22nd place in the world with US$42,400 each, ahead of second-rate economies such as Holland, Sweden,  Canada, Germany, the UK in 36th place with US$36,700 per person, Japan, France, South Korea and New Zealand at 50th with
$28,800 – and many, many more.
 
We’re way off the pace when it comes to unemployment. Communist Cambodia doesn’t have any. Neither, at the opposite end of the spectrum, does tax haven Monaco. Qatar must need a few more oil and gas wells to create jobs because its unemployment rate is 0.5%.

After countries like this, together with tigers like Singapore and Switzerland with its gnomes, we’re way down in 48th place with a
2012 rate of 4.3% - ahead of only dozens of no-hopers such as Japan (4.4%), Israel (6.3%), New Zealand (6.5%), Germany (6.5%), Canada (7.3%), the United Kingdom (7.8%), the USA (8.2%), and the entire European Union as an entity with 10.9%.
 
But remember it’s debt that the Liberals are particularly concerned about.
 
The Liberals could use the fact that we are almost at the bottom of the CIA league table of debt expressed as a percentage of GDP - 119th place.
 
He could conveniently ignore the fact that this is because we’ve only managed to accumulate a debt of 26.9% of GDP.
 
Japan are champions with a debt of 214.3% of GDP. President Mugabe has single-handedly steered Zimbabwe into 2nd place owing 202.7% of GDP. How can we compete with Greece in 3rd place with 161.3% and powerhouse St Kitts and Nevis on exactly 144%?
 
Way up the table are minnows such as Singapore (111.4%), the United Kingdom (88.7%), Canada (84.1%), Germany (81.7%), USA (73.6%), Brazil (54.9%), Switzerland - yes, Gnomeland – (52.4%),
India (51.9%), New Zealand (41.8%), the United Arab Emirates (40.4%), South Korea (33.7%) and Hong Kong (30%).
 
Perhaps there’s a different answer when we examine budget surpluses and debts by dividing the budget balance by GDP with figures expressed as a percentage of GDP.

The CIA says that on this basis Macau, the gambling capital of south-east Asia, is champion with a surplus of 45.3% followed by oil rich Brunei (23.9%) and Kuwait (21.6%).
 
The world average is minus 3.8%. Australia, in 56th place out of 216 countries, easily beats that with -0.8%. Among those worse off are banana republics like China (74th -1.6%), Canada (129th
-3.8%), Malaysia (161st -5.2%) New Zealand (172nd -6%), the USA
(193rd -7.6%), the United Kingdom (194th-7.7%) and Japan (203rd
-9.1%).
 
It’s a similar sad story when it comes to “taxes and other revenue, including corporate, VAT (GST), excise and hospitality as a percentage of GDP”.
 
The Liberal plan says, we’re overtaxed and need to lower taxes.
 
The CIA table shows that in this league table Iraq is the champion with taxes of 79.9% of GDP. Then come Greenland and Turkmenistan.
 
It’s not until 12th place that we come across a European powerhouse – Denmark with 57.1% of GDP. Other countries way
above Australia in hampering enterprises with high taxes include Norway, Sweden, France, Austria, Italy, Germany, Greece (42.6% for those who feel inclined to contribute), the United Kingdom (40.9%), Canada (38.4%), New Zealand (37.5%), Switzerland (those gnomes again – 34.2%), Qatar, spending big on 12 soccer  stadiums for the World Cup (33.9%), Japan (33.8%).
 
It’s only then that Australia makes an appearance with overall taxes and other revenue of 33.5% of GDP - only a smidgeon over a third. We really must do better.
 
Who’s at the bottom of the table? The USA with a mere 15.7% of GDP collected in taxes. This is obviously the way to go. 
 
How do the USA’s low taxes translate to paying its way in the world? In the list of current account balances (on an exchange rate basis) the CIA places the USA so far behind every other country that it’s in a different galaxy but, as with the Australian
Liberals, the Republicans are calling for less taxes.
 
To put the USA’s position in perspective, its low taxes have helped the country not only into last place in the world’s league table for paying its way but its negative balance is six times worse than the country above it in 192nd place, India.

The USA’s current account balance is minus US$487,200 million. Count to a million – and then do it another 487,199 more times.
 
Our balance is minus US$47,100 million – which is not as much as the UK, France, Canada, Brazil, or India.
 
The International Monetary Fund, in its May 2013 half-year update, says our general government financial balance as a percentage of GDP is 1.8%.
 
Again, other countries have managed to rack up far greater debts than we have. Japan is way out in front with a figure of 10.3%, the UK 7.1%, USA 5.4%, the average for all Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries 4.3%, Canada 2.8%, New Zealand 2.4%. 
  
Here are the facts about the Australian economy.
 
Australia has achieved or retained:

·        A general government financial balance more than twice as good as the average for all developed countries (OECD 2013);

·        GDP growth which is the sixth best in the world, according to the World Economic Forum;

·        GDP growth at a rate more than the average of OECD  countries;

·        An unemployment level well below the average for other OECD countries;

·        One of the lowest revenue raising rates among developed countries (CIA);

·        One of the lowest public debts in the world, with the World Economic Forum saying: “Despite repeated budget deficits, its public debt amounts to a low 23 per cent of GDP, the third lowest
ratio among the advanced economies, behind only Estonia and
Luxembourg”; 

·        A place in the top five advanced economies when it comes to total financing needs by 2015 (IMF) and in the World Economic Forum’s financial development index; and

·        An AAA rating – one of only 14 countries to do so under Standard and Poor’s and Fitch’s systems.

IMF Executive Directors commended the Australian authorities for their sound and prudent macroeconomic management, which had contributed to impressive growth, low unemployment, and subdued inflation.
 
The Economist Intelligence Unit says: “Average GDP growth in 2014-17 should pick up to a relatively brisk 3.4% a year. The government is nevertheless pursuing reforms to boost productivity and reduce demographic pressures.”
 
The CIA says: “The Australian economy has experienced continuous growth and features low unemployment, contained inflation, very low public debt, and a strong and stable financial
system. By 2012, Australia had experienced more than 20 years of continued economic growth, averaging 3.5% a year. Australia is an open market with minimal restrictions on imports of goods and services. The process of opening up has increased productivity, stimulated growth, and made the economy more flexible and dynamic.”

Who should we believe –the Central Intelligence Agency, the International Monetary Fund, the Organisation for Economic Development or Tony Abbott?]]>